There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen…

The pandemic continues. We are monitoring the economic numbers and are staggered by the lack of concern in the financial markets. In 2009, continued claims for unemployment peaked at 6.6 million and then steadily declined. If you thought that was bad, today, continued claims are over 11 million. There are also an additional 11 million people receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (a special program for business owners, self-employed, etc who don’t qualify for regular unemployment). Yes, the government has gone above and beyond in providing assistance, but with over 22 million people out of work, how long will it take for the economy to recover?

Election Day is less than a month away. Hopefully, we will know who wins shortly after. In our mind, the biggest risk to the election isn’t who wins (historically the stock market has performed slightly better when the president is a Democrat), but that the election results in a definitive winner. If the election result ends up in dispute, the uncertainty could be very disruptive.

The brightest minds in the world are focused on developing a vaccine, but even under the best timelines, it most likely will not be widely available in the United States until mid-2021. As the weather starts to turn colder and flu season gets underway, we are continuing to be conservative in our investment strategy. We would rather miss some of the upside while keeping you safe, than encounter a big loss due to all of the uncertainty ahead. That being said, we don’t have our heads buried in the sand. We are keeping our eyes open for good investment opportunities.

As a reminder, the Federal Government has changed the age for when you need to start taking Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) from your retirement account. If you have not started taking your RMD, you can wait until the calendar year when you turn 72 years old (the age used to be 70 ½). As always, we will contact you during the calendar year that you need to start taking your RMD in order to make sure that you don’t run afoul of the IRS.

Take care, stay safe.

Michael F. Cantlon
Thomas E. Guyett
Robert T. Gephart